Applications

The Many Dimensions of Political Discourse on Taiwan among Chinese netizens: an analysis of 20 million Weibo posts

Huan-Kai Tseng,  Osbern Huang, Waybe Lee and Yu-tzung Chang (National Taiwan University)

Abstract: Can microblog data be a useful substitute for internet poll to gauge public opinion on politically sensitive...

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Using Latent Class Analysis to Explain Donor Behavior

Jay Goodliffe (Brigham Young University)

Abstract: Why do citizens start donating to campaigns? Why do donors stop donating? Using latent class analysis and latent profile analysis, I classify donors (and non-donors) into different...

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What Matters to Voters? Examining Micro-Level and Macro-Level Drivers of Citizens' Economic and Political Evaluations

James Bisbee (Princeton University) and Jan Zilinsky (New York University)

Abstract: Voters form beliefs about the economy and politics on the basis of a potentially rich information set including experiences with own outcomes...

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Estimating the Dark Figure of Crime Using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees Plus Poststratification (BARP)

Isabel Laterzo (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Abstract: Studies of both crime victimization and violence often suffer from demonstrably unreliable crime figures. Consequently, researchers typically use homicide rates as an indicator to reflect all types of violence, despite this figure’s biases. The...

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Decoding Propaganda Slogans in China: Reading Between the Lines Using Word Embeddings

Yin Yuan (University of California, San Diego)

Abstract: Propaganda slogans in China (a.k.a. “catchphrases” or “tifa”) are widely believed to be artifacts of propaganda aimed at indoctrinating the general public that convey little substantive political or policy information. This paper intends to show instead that these...

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Attributable Risk of Race: Detecting Partisan and Racial Gerrymandering

Sidak Yntiso and Sanford Gordon (New York University)

Abstract: How can we measure racial gerrymandering? Isolating racially disparate impacts of redistricting has proven difficult as sophisticated mapmakers can...

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Religiosity and Secularism: A Text-as-Data Approach to Recover Jihadist Groups' Rhetorical Strategies

Luwei Ying (Washington University in St. Louis)

Abstract: Radical Islamists as the major force of the current "wave" of terrorism pursue impact, not only attacks. Scholars, however, for decades have almost exclusively focused on violent attacks in quantitative literature, but much less on the perpetrators' ideological...

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How a Deep Neural Network Contributes to Learning Causal Graph and Forecasting Political Dynamics

Seo Eun Yang (Ohio State University)

Abstract: Nonlinearity has been considerably interested in time series analysis of conflict/opinion dynamics. However, handling unknown nonlinear interactions on time series data is a methodologically challenging task because traditional models such as VAR Granger analysis or B-SVAR...

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Finding Social Media Trolls: Dynamic Keyword Selection Methods for Rapidly Evolving Online Debates

Maya Srikanth, Anqi Liu, Nicholas Adams-Cohen, Anima Anandkumar and R. Michael Alvarez (California Institute of Technology)

Abstract: Online harassment is a significant social problem. Prevention of online harassment requires rapid detection of harassing, offensive, and negative social media posts. In this paper, we propose the use of word embedding...

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Voter Turnout and Campaign Mail Features

Marcy Shieh and Blake Reynolds (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Abstract:  The way images and text are presented to us can have a significant impact on how we are affected by the message contained in an advertisement. Therefore, we ask how does the formatting of campaign mail influence voter turnout? Using campaign mail from the 2018 primary and general elections in Texas, we examine the layout of campaign mailers. To do this, we leverage machine...

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The Consequences of Social Interaction on Outparty Affect and Stereotypes

Erin Rossiter (Washington University in St. Louis)

Abstract: Americans increasingly dislike members of the opposite political party and associate negative stereotypes with them such as close-minded, mean, and hypocritical. Yet, Americans interact, whether talking about politics or not, with opposing party members in their...

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Pay attention to this! Explaining emphasis in legislative speech.

Oliver Rittmann (University of Mannheim), Tobias Ringwald (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) and Dominic Nyhuis (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Abstract: Why do legislators sometimes deliver emphatic speeches and tedious monologues at other times? We argue that legislators make passionate appeals when...

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Changing the Dialogue: Candidate Position-Taking in Primary Elections

Rachel Porter, Sarah Treul and Maura McDonald (University of North Carolina)

Abstract: The record-high number of women who ran for the U.S. Congress during the midterm elections led many journalists to...

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The Politics of Science: Evidence From 19th-Century Public Health

Casey Petroff (Harvard University)

Abstract: How do governments decide between protecting public health and protecting the economy when a new disease threat emerges? I study this question using evidence from cholera epidemics in the 19th century. In the face of this new threat to public health, professional opinion was divided between...

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Who Do You Think You’re Fooling? Examining the Internal Russian Disinformation Campaign

Sean Norton (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Abstract: While an extensive literature in both the academic and popular presses has examined the Russian state’s use of Twitter to influence the 2016 US...

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