Political Behavior

Ineffective Attribution Testing: An exploration of individual differences in cognition between Liberals and Conservatives

Stephanie Nail   (Stanford University)

Abstract: Previous literature has suggested that there are underlying differences in...

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Using Latent Class Analysis to Explain Donor Behavior

Jay Goodliffe (Brigham Young University)

Abstract: Why do citizens start donating to campaigns? Why do donors stop donating? Using latent class analysis and latent profile analysis, I classify donors (and non-donors) into different...

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What Matters to Voters? Examining Micro-Level and Macro-Level Drivers of Citizens' Economic and Political Evaluations

James Bisbee (Princeton University) and Jan Zilinsky (New York University)

Abstract: Voters form beliefs about the economy and politics on the basis of a potentially rich information set including experiences with own outcomes...

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Using Poisson Binomial Models to Reveal Voter Preferences

Evan Rosenman and Nitin Viswanathan (Stanford University)

Abstract: We consider a problem of ecological inference, in which individual-level covariates are known, but labeled data is available only at the aggregate level...

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Formalization of Political Analysis: Matrix of Possibles States and Strategies

Fernando Rocha Rosario (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

Abstract: In this paper I expose a technique which formalizes the political analysis using modal logic and theory of rational choice. For represent the...

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Pay attention to this! Explaining emphasis in legislative speech.

Oliver Rittmann (University of Mannheim), Tobias Ringwald (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) and Dominic Nyhuis (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Abstract: Why do legislators sometimes deliver emphatic speeches and tedious monologues at other times? We argue that legislators make passionate appeals when...

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A New Multilevel-Based Indicator for Party System Nationalization

Kazuma Mizukoshi (University College London)

Abstract: “Science is impossible without an evolving network of stable measures” (Wright 1997: 33), but to what extent should measures be stable? Though measures seem still stable as...

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The Heuristic Issue Voter: Issue Preferences and Candidate Choice

Gabriel Madson (Duke University)

Abstract: Issue voting, where citizens select candidates primarily for their positions on political issues, is a normatively appealing theory of voting. A public whose political behavior is driven by...

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Clustering Large-Scale Ballot Data With Varying Choice Sets

Shiro Kuriwaki (Harvard University)

Abstract: Election scholars increasingly analyze large cast vote records (ballot image logs) to measure ticket splitting and ideological coherence in actual voter behavior. Election administrators also store cast vote records to detect election fraud and audit results. Although clustering methods...

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Non-Parametric Bridging of Non-Parametric Ideological Scales: Application to Mapping Voters on Politicians’ Ideological Space

Tzu-Ping Liu, Gento Kato and Samuel Fuller (University of California, Davis)

Abstract: Bridging ideological estimates of various groups and polities is an important, but relatively troubled branch of...

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Cheap Talk or Circuit to the Legislature: Why Do Corporations Express Public Support for and Opposition Against Free Trade?

Dahyun Choi (Princeton University)

Abstract: Studies of lobbying demonstrate that sending costly signals can further enhance the credibility of the information conveyed by firms, and this characteristic of lobbying has made scholars assume that entering into the lobbying market is the most effective channel for firms to influence...

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The Persuasion Effect and Contrast Effect of Radical Right Voters – the case of Germany

Ka-Ming Chan (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)

Abstract: During the 2013-2017 electoral cycle, Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as a radical right party in the electoral market and it broke into thirteen subnational parliaments. This research investigates whether its voters shifted their ideological self-position in the rightward direction throughout these concatenated elections. This rationalization process, in which...

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Estimating Historical Election Results Under Counterfactual Electoral Systems

Samuel Baltz (University of Michigan)

Abstract: Despite the salience and importance of electoral system reform, both in the political science literature and in the contemporary politics of many democracies, little direct attention has been paid to the following question: how might the results of a specific election have been...

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Who Gets Their Way in Coalition Policy?

Alessio Albarello (University of Rochester)

Abstract: In coalition governments, parties need to agree on a common position. Whose preferences pre- vail? I test alternative theories for the determination of the policy compromise in multiparty governments. I reject a prominent theory that coalition partners’ influence on policy is...

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