American Politics

Attributable Risk of Race: Detecting Partisan and Racial Gerrymandering

Sidak Yntiso and Sanford Gordon (New York University)

Abstract: How can we measure racial gerrymandering? Isolating racially disparate impacts of redistricting has proven difficult as sophisticated mapmakers can...

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Voter Turnout and Campaign Mail Features

Marcy Shieh and Blake Reynolds (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Abstract:  The way images and text are presented to us can have a significant impact on how we are affected by the message contained in an advertisement. Therefore, we ask how does the formatting of campaign mail influence voter turnout? Using campaign mail from the 2018 primary and general elections in Texas, we examine the layout of campaign mailers. To do this, we leverage machine...

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The Consequences of Social Interaction on Outparty Affect and Stereotypes

Erin Rossiter (Washington University in St. Louis)

*Award for Best Graduate Student Poster - Applications*

Abstract: Americans increasingly dislike members of the opposite political party and associate negative stereotypes with them such as close-minded, mean, and hypocritical. Yet...

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Using Poisson Binomial Models to Reveal Voter Preferences

Evan Rosenman and Nitin Viswanathan (Stanford University)

Abstract: We consider a problem of ecological inference, in which individual-level covariates are known, but labeled data is available only at the aggregate level...

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Urban-Rural Divide in State Political Parties

Zoe Nemerever (University of California, San Diego)

Abstract: The urban-rural divide in American politics typically is presented as a comprehensive explanation for electoral outcomes. Yet, no research directly examines variations in the urban-rural divide across the states. This project is the first to quantitatively...

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Measuring Political Polarization in Mass Publics: The Cluster-Polarization Coefficient

Isaac Mehlhaff (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Abstract: Political polarization has become a key concern in many important topics within comparative politics, yet past research has reached little consensus as to its substantive causes and effects. Much of this disagreement, I argue, stems from the use...

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Donation Dynamics: Do Critical Campaign Events Influence Contributions?

Seo-young Silvia Kim (California Institute of Technology)

Abstract: What events motivate individual campaign contributions? Using the 2016 campaign finance data from the Federal Election Commission as a daily time-series, I test the hypothesis that if presidential donors are either instrumental or momentum-driven, they...

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LAPD Community Safety Partnership: Impact Evaluation on Violent Crime Using Augmented Synthetic Control Models

Sydney Kahmann, Erin Hartman, P. Jeffrey Brantingham and Jorja Leap (University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract: In 2011, the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), in conjunction with other governmental and nonprofit groups, launched the Community Safety Partnership (CSP)....

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Sensitivity Analysis for Outcome Tests

Elisha Cohen (Emory University)

Abstract: Outcome tests, a method that can be used for evaluating bias in selection making processes, are especially useful when using administrative datasets that contain only observations after the selection process has occurred. I show the outcome test lower bound derived by Knox, Lowe, and Mummolo (...

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