Graduate Student Posters

Floor Speeches and Ideological Position: Estimating Ideology of Representatives

Benjamin Guinaudeau and Simon Roth (University of Konstanz)

Abstract: Estimating ideological position has always been challenging for political scientists. The technical progress of the last decades -digitalization, computational improvements- opened new opportunities to measure ideological position. While...

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Formalization of Political Analysis: Matrix of Possibles States and Strategies

Fernando Rocha Rosario (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

Abstract: In this paper I expose a technique which formalizes the political analysis using modal logic and theory of rational choice. For represent the...

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Framing Democracy: Identifying Autocratic Anti-Democratic Propaganda Using Word Embeddings

Patrick Chester (New York University)

Abstract: There is substantial empirical evidence that indicates that democracy can spread between countries through observational learning. But do autocracies try to bias learning against...

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Friend or Faux: Social Network-Based Early Detection of Fake User Accounts on Facebook

Adam Breuer (Harvard University), R. Eilat (Facebook Research), U. Weinsberg (Facebook Research)

Abstract: In 2019 alone, Facebook disabled over 6 billion fake user accounts. While early...

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Gaussian Process Models for Causal Inference With Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data

Nuannuan Xiang and Kevin Quinn (University of Michigan)

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a class of Gaussian Process models to estimate treatment effects with time-series cross-sectional data, in which a subset of units receives treatment in a subset of time periods. We impute potential (untreated) outcomes of...

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How a Deep Neural Network Contributes to Learning Causal Graph and Forecasting Political Dynamics

Seo Eun Yang (Ohio State University)

Abstract: Nonlinearity has been considerably interested in time series analysis of conflict/opinion dynamics. However, handling unknown nonlinear interactions on time series data is a methodologically challenging task because traditional models such as VAR Granger analysis or B-SVAR...

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How Criminal Organizations Expand to Strong States: Migrants' Exploitation and Vote Buying in Northern Italy

Gemma Dipoppa (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract:  Criminal organizations are widely believed to emerge in weak states unable to protect the property rights and safety of their citizens. Yet, criminal groups often expand to states with strong capacity and well-functioning institutions. This paper proposes a theory accounting...

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Joint Image-Text Classification Using a Transformer-Based Architecture

Patrick Wu and Walter R. Mebane Jr. (University of Michigan)

Abstract: The use of social media data in political science is now commonplace. Social media posts such as Tweets are usually multimodal, comprising...

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Keyword Assisted Topic Models

Shusei Eshima (Harvard University), Tomoya Sasaki (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and Kosuke Imai (Harvard University)

Abstract: For a long time, many social scientists have conducted content analysis by using their substantive knowledge and manually coding documents. In recent years, however, fully automated...

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LAPD Community Safety Partnership: Impact Evaluation on Violent Crime Using Augmented Synthetic Control Models

Sydney Kahmann, Erin Hartman, P. Jeffrey Brantingham and Jorja Leap (University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract: In 2011, the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), in conjunction with other governmental and nonprofit groups, launched the Community Safety Partnership (CSP)....

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Latent Factor Approach to Missing Not at Random

Naijia Liu (Princeton University)

Abstract: Social scientists rely heavily on survey datasets to study important questions, such as policy preferences and voting intentions. However, it is common that respondents choose not to answer a certain question due to some unobserved confounders, thus causing ’missing not at random (MNAR)’...

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Learning From Likes: The Effect of Social Engagement Feedback on Politicians' Social Media Communications

Ryden Butler (Washington University in St. Louis)

Abstract: Considerable research indicates that politicians adapt their rhetoric in order to appeal to the preferences of their constituents. However scant research has examined this phenomenon in the context of politicians' social media communications. In this study I use...

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Legislative Networks and Agenda-Setting in the UNGA and UNSC

Sabrina Arias and Robert Shaffer (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract: How do the agendas of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) influence each other? Which of these foundational UN institution leads, and which lags? How often do these chambers devote attention to...

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Leveraging Observational Outcomes to Improve the Generalization of Experimental Results

Melody Huang (University of California, Los Angeles), Erin Hartman (University of California, Los Angeles), Naoki Egami (Columbia University) and Luke Miratrix (Harvard University)

Abstract: Randomized control...

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Measuring Issue-Specific Preferences From Votes

Sooahn Shin (Harvard University)

Abstract: How can we measure issue-specific ideal points using roll-call votes? Ideal points have been widely used for measuring ideology, yet its nature of latent space makes it difficult to target a...

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Measuring Political Elite Networks With Wikidata

Omer Faruk Yalcin (Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract: An important issue in the study of comparative political elite networks is the elusiveness of cross-country empirical measurement. Most studies of political elites focus on country or region-specific institutions and use ad-hoc data collection methods like surveys...

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Measuring Political Polarization in Mass Publics: The Cluster-Polarization Coefficient

Isaac Mehlhaff (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Abstract: Political polarization has become a key concern in many important topics within comparative politics, yet past research has reached little consensus as to its substantive causes and effects. Much of this disagreement, I argue, stems from the use...

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Measuring Regulatory Barriers Using Annual Reports of Firms

Haosen Ge (Princeton University)

Abstract: Existing studies show that regulations are one of the major barriers to global economy. Nonetheless, identifying and measuring regulatory barriers remains a challenging task for scholars. I...

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Modeling Time and Space Together

Ali Kagalwala (Texas A&M University), Andrea Junqueira (Texas A&M University), Guy D. Whitten (Texas A&M University), Laron K. Williams (University of Missouri) and Cameron Wimpy (Arkansas State University)

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Multiplicative Interactions in Error Correction Models

Flávio Souza (Texas A&M University)

Abstract: Error correction modeling (ECM) is a common time-series strategy when both dependent and independent variables contain a unit root and are cointegrated. But one of its principal drawbacks is its inflexibility—since it requires that every independent variable enter the right...

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New Frontiers in Dynamic Pie Modeling

Andrea Junqueira (Texas A&M University), Ali Kagalwala (Texas A&M University), Andrew Philips (University of Colorado Boulder) and Guy Whitten (Texas A&M University)

Abstract: In this paper, we...

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Non-Parametric Bridging of Non-Parametric Ideological Scales: Application to Mapping Voters on Politicians’ Ideological Space

Tzu-Ping Liu, Gento Kato and Samuel Fuller (University of California, Davis)

Abstract: Bridging ideological estimates of various groups and polities is an important, but relatively troubled branch of...

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Paragraph-Citation Topic Models for Corpora With Citation Networks

ByungKoo Kim, Yuki Shiraito and Saki Kuzushima (University of Michigan)

Abstract: Social scientists often analyze a corpus with a citation network among its documents, such as the corpus of the U.S. Supreme Court decisions. Existing topic models for document networks assume that the topic of a citation is...

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Pay attention to this! Explaining emphasis in legislative speech.

Oliver Rittmann (University of Mannheim), Tobias Ringwald (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) and Dominic Nyhuis (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Abstract: Why do legislators sometimes deliver emphatic speeches and tedious monologues at other times? We argue that legislators make passionate appeals when...

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Priming Bias Versus Post-Treatment Bias in Experimental Designs

Jacob Brown (Harvard University), Matthew Blackwell (Harvard University), Sophie Hill (Harvard University), Kosuke Imai (Harvard University) and Teppei Yamamoto (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract:  It is now widely recognized that conditioning on variables affected by a treatment can induce post-treatment bias when estimating causal...

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Quantifying Triggers With Event Coincidence Analysis: An Application to Mass Civilian Killings in Civil War, 1989-2017

Angela Chesler (University of Notre Dame)

Abstract: Scholars of international relations, comparative politics, and peace and conflict studies are often interested in questions concerning the triggers of extreme political outcomes such as war, coups, and genocide. In a causal chain, a trigger is an immediate cause that can be...

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Religiosity and Secularism: A Text-as-Data Approach to Recover Jihadist Groups' Rhetorical Strategies

Luwei Ying (Washington University in St. Louis)

Abstract: Radical Islamists as the major force of the current "wave" of terrorism pursue impact, not only attacks. Scholars, however, for decades have almost exclusively focused on violent attacks in quantitative literature, but much less on the perpetrators' ideological...

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Rigorous Subjectivity: Demystifying and Improving Human Coding With Statistical Models

Matthew Tyler (Stanford University)

Abstract: Researchers are often tasked with applying subjective or contested labels to objects such as text and images. For example, researchers might hire coders to label the ideological slant of news articles. I show how two typical coding workflows in political science, traditional small-team...

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Scaling the Youtube Media Environment Using Network and Text Data

Soubhik Barari (Harvard)

Abstract: In an era where many Internet news-seekers prefer to watch rather than read their news, YouTube plays an important role in mass political communication, but remains entirely unstudied by political...

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Sensitivity Analysis for Outcome Tests

Elisha Cohen (Emory University)

Abstract: Outcome tests, a method that can be used for evaluating bias in selection making processes, are especially useful when using administrative datasets that contain only observations after the selection process has occurred. I show the outcome test lower bound derived by Knox, Lowe, and Mummolo (...

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